Toronto Real Estate Market Update | November 2023

Wednesday Jan 31st, 2024

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Persistent uncertainty in economic conditions and consistently high borrowing costs continued to impact home sales in the GTA throughout November 2023.

 

Sales experienced a year-over-year decline, while the number of listings saw an increase from last year's low point in supply. With a broader selection available in the market, selling prices remained relatively stable compared to the previous year. 

Tune into Alex's latest video as he goes over all the details.

 

 

Mortgage And Economic Report

From Sean Smith of Dominion Lending

 

  • Bond yields fell another 22 points over the last two weeks, and fixed mortgage rates have fallen .20%.

  • Markets expect the first interest rate cut by the April 2024 Bank of Canada meeting.

  • Markets expect up to five interest rate cuts of 0.25% by the end of 2024.

  • The Bank of Canada had advised that they could lower interest rates before inflation reached the 2% target if the outlook warranted it.

  • Toronto Metro (GTA) active listings have declined for several weeks, heading towards the seasonal target. Rental inventory is also climbing quickly, which should relieve rental rates. Softening resale and disinflationary rental prices may contribute to softer CPI heading into the new year.  

  • Early data for Q4 has been mixed.  GDP edged up 0.1% in September (slightly stronger than expected) and the advance estimate for October was +0.2%. Those early estimates have been exceptionally revision-prone, and should be taken with a large grain of salt (RBC Economics).

  • Q3 data was soft - GDP would have declined a larger 3% in the quarter without a 7.3% jump in government spending. 

  • GDP per-capita declined for a fifth straight quarter in Q3, consistent with a drift higher in the unemployment rate since the spring.

  • Labour markets have also looked softer - job vacancies separately reported this morning fell another 6% in September and are down more than 30% from a year ago (RBC Economics).

  • Oil prices have risen incrementally since our last report on speculation of additional cuts to production by OPEC+.

 

 

For Mortgage Questions, Contact Sean

 

If you want to know more about what’s going on in your neighbourhood or one you’re interested in, book a time to chat - we’re here to help.

 

Alex + Elaine

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